To buy or not to buy

So my current analysis of land values in a certain southeastern metro Atlanta county revealed that over the past 24 months, the majority of vacant land transfers have been, NOT.  What does that mean?  Well, looking at the thirty some odd sales of vacant land, more than twenty were deeds under power - you know, foreclosures.  That is a pretty significant number for a county with a land size more than 300 square miles and two major interstates running through it.

Although we are seeing some return of commercial market activity, it seems that land ownership is still mostly speculative.  And, lenders seem unwilling to continue taking the risk of a loan without payment and are taking property back for resale, sometimes, apparently, for $0.30 on the $1.00.  If you still have cash, now might be a great time to speculate.

Why do I do it?

For me, most of my life has been about reactivity. In the past 10 months, I have been blessed with this little voice - no, not my own, but one I trust, encouraging me to take time.

Time is short with my girls. They are in their mid-teens and I am greatful to be making the proactive step of spending more quality time with them. I am greatful for the knowledge, education, and experience which provides this career!

the closer you are . . .

"In order to determine potential losses in value for residential improvements due to the location-proximity of the new alignment/right of way for Georgia Highway xx south of Xxxxx, the appraiser has reviewed market information regarding the 13 improved sales and their distance from existing roadways."

Have I considered enough evidence?  Does a new alignment have more impact that widening an existing roadway?  What impact occurs from a new roadway to a residential improvement?

These questions swirl around any analysis regarding bringing a roadway closer to a house.  And as a professional, I tend to do the same quality work for condemnors and condemnees.    Basically, proximity impact is shown from market evidence, typically from the market/sales comparison approach by comparing distances at sale.  We filter data and extract items such as underlying land value and adjust for construction date, type and quality, number of bedrooms and baths, or square footage.

We consider the relevant data, apply an analysis tool, and voice an opinion.  Sometimes we use statistics, sometimes we consider paired sales.  

In the above analysis, I reviewed over 100 sales to get 13 'good' ones.  Was that sufficient?  What if only two good pairs presented themselves for comparison?

As appraisers, we should consider and utilize all the valuation methodologies available to us.  But, at what point do we complete that analysis and make a determination for value impact?